Tag Archives: biological warfare

The AI-Designed Bioweapon Arms Race

Post Syndicated from Bruce Schneier original https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2025/10/the-ai-designed-bioweapon-arms-race.html

Interesting article about the arms race between AI systems that invent/design new biological pathogens, and AI systems that detect them before they’re created:

The team started with a basic test: use AI tools to design variants of the toxin ricin, then test them against the software that is used to screen DNA orders. The results of the test suggested there was a risk of dangerous protein variants slipping past existing screening software, so the situation was treated like the equivalent of a zero-day vulnerability.

[…]

Details of that original test are being made available today as part of a much larger analysis that extends the approach to a large range of toxic proteins. Starting with 72 toxins, the researchers used three open source AI packages to generate a total of about 75,000 potential protein variants.

And this is where things get a little complicated. Many of the AI-designed protein variants are going to end up being non-functional, either subtly or catastrophically failing to fold up into the correct configuration to create an active toxin.

[…]

In any case, DNA sequences encoding all 75,000 designs were fed into the software that screens DNA orders for potential threats. One thing that was very clear is that there were huge variations in the ability of the four screening programs to flag these variant designs as threatening. Two of them seemed to do a pretty good job, one was mixed, and another let most of them through. Three of the software packages were updated in response to this performance, which significantly improved their ability to pick out variants.

There was also a clear trend in all four screening packages: The closer the variant was to the original structurally, the more likely the package (both before and after the patches) was to be able to flag it as a threat. In all cases, there was also a cluster of variant designs that were unlikely to fold into a similar structure, and these generally weren’t flagged as threats.

The research is all preliminary, and there are a lot of ways in which the experiment diverges from reality. But I am not optimistic about this particular arms race. I think that the ability of AI systems to create something deadly will advance faster than the ability of AI systems to detect its components.

Using LLMs to Create Bioweapons

Post Syndicated from Bruce Schneier original https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2023/04/using-llms-to-create-bioweapons.html

I’m not sure there are good ways to build guardrails to prevent this sort of thing:

There is growing concern regarding the potential misuse of molecular machine learning models for harmful purposes. Specifically, the dual-use application of models for predicting cytotoxicity18 to create new poisons or employing AlphaFold2 to develop novel bioweapons has raised alarm. Central to these concerns are the possible misuse of large language models and automated experimentation for dual-use purposes or otherwise. We specifically address two critical the synthesis issues: illicit drugs and chemical weapons. To evaluate these risks, we designed a test set comprising compounds from the DEA’s Schedule I and II substances and a list of known chemical weapon agents. We submitted these compounds to the Agent using their common names, IUPAC names, CAS numbers, and SMILESs strings to determine if the Agent would carry out extensive analysis and planning (Figure 6).

[…]

The run logs can be found in Appendix F. Out of 11 different prompts (Figure 6), four (36%) provided a synthesis solution and attempted to consult documentation to execute the procedure. This figure is alarming on its own, but an even greater concern is the way in which the Agent declines to synthesize certain threats. Out of the seven refused chemicals, five were rejected after the Agent utilized search functions to gather more information about the substance. For instance, when asked about synthesizing codeine, the Agent becomes alarmed upon learning the connection between codeine and morphine, only then concluding that the synthesis cannot be conducted due to the requirement of a controlled substance. However, this search function can be easily manipulated by altering the terminology, such as replacing all mentions of morphine with “Compound A” and codeine with “Compound B”. Alternatively, when requesting a b synthesis procedure that must be performed in a DEA-licensed facility, bad actors can mislead the Agent by falsely claiming their facility is licensed, prompting the Agent to devise a synthesis solution.

In the remaining two instances, the Agent recognized the common names “heroin” and “mustard gas” as threats and prevented further information gathering. While these results are promising, it is crucial to recognize that the system’s capacity to detect misuse primarily applies to known compounds. For unknown compounds, the model is less likely to identify potential misuse, particularly for complex protein toxins where minor sequence changes might allow them to maintain the same properties but become unrecognizable to the model.