Post Syndicated from Ryan Weeks original https://blog.rapid7.com/2022/03/31/4-fallacies-that-keep-smbs-vulnerable-to-ransomware-pt-2/

This post is co-authored by Chris Henderson, Senior Director of Information Security at Datto, Inc.

Welcome back for the second and final of our blogs on the fallacies and biases that perpetuate ransomware risk for SMBs. In part one, we examined how flawed thinking and a sense of helplessness are obstacles to taking action against ransomware. In this final part, we will examine fallacies number 3 and 4: the ways SMBs often fail to “trust but verify” the security safety of their critical business partners, and how prior investments affect their forward-looking mitigation decisions.

3. Failing to trust but verify

“You seem like someone I can trust to help support and grow my business.”

Stranger danger

When SMBs create business partnerships, we do so with a reasonable expectation that others will do the right things to keep both them and us safe. SMBs are effectively placing trust in strangers. As humans, we (often unconsciously) decide who to trust due to how they make us feel or whether they remind us of a past positive experience. Rarely have SMBs done a deep enough examination to determine if that level of trust is truly warranted, especially when it comes to protecting against ransomware.

We reasonably — but perhaps incorrectly — expect a few key things from these business partners, namely that they will:

• Be rational actors that can be relied on to make informed decisions that maximize benefits for us
• Exercise rational choice in our best interests
• Operate with the same level of due care that a reasonable, prudent person would use under the same or similar circumstances, in decisions that affect our business – akin to a fiduciary

Rational actor model

According to an economic theory, a rational actor maximizes benefits for themselves first and will exercise rational choice that determines whether an option is right for themselves. That begs the question: To what extent do SMBs understand if business objectives are aligned such that what is right for their business partners’ cyber protection is also right for them? In the SMB space, too often the answer is based on trust alone and not on any sort of verification, or what mature security programs call third-party due diligence.

If I harm you, I harm myself

Increasingly, ransomware attacks are relying on our business relationships (a.k.a. supply chains) to facilitate attacks on targets. End targets may be meticulously selected, but they could instead be targets of opportunity, and sometimes they are even impacted as collateral damage. In any case, in this ransomware environment, it is critical for SMBs to reassess the level of trust they place in their business partners, as their cyber posture is now part of yours. You share the risk.

Trust is a critical component of business relationships, but trust in a business partner’s security must be verified upon establishment of the relationship and reaffirmed periodically thereafter. It is a reasonable expectation that, given this ransomware environment, your business partners will be able to prove that they take both their and your protection as being in your mutual best interests. They must be able to speak to and demonstrate how they work toward that objective.

Acknowledge and act

Trust is no longer enough — SMBs have to verify. Unfortunately, there is no one-size-fits-all process for diligence, but a good place to start is with a serious conversation about your business partners’ attitudes, beliefs, current readiness, and their investments in cyber resilience, ransomware prevention, and recovery. During that conversation, ask a few key questions:

1. Do you have cyber insurance coverage for a ransomware incident that affects both you and your customers? Tip: Ask them to provide you proof of coverage.
2. What cybersecurity program framework do you follow, and to what extent have you accomplished operating effectiveness against that framework? Tip: Ask to see materials from audits or assessments as evidence.
3. Has your security posture been validated by an independent third party? Tip: Ask to see materials from audits or assessments as evidence.
4. When was the last time you, or a customer of yours, suffered a cybersecurity incident, and how did you respond? Tip: Ask for a reference from a customer they’ve helped recover from a ransomware incident.

4. “We can’t turn back now; we’ve come too far”

“We have already spent so much time and made significant investments in IT solutions to achieve our business objectives. It wouldn’t make sense at this point to abandon our solutions, given what we’ve already invested.”

Sunk cost

Ransomware threat actors seek businesses whose IT solutions — when improperly developed, deployed, configured, or maintained — make compromise and infection easy. Such solutions are currently a primary access vector for ransomware, as they can be difficult to retrofit security into. When that happens, we are faced with a decision to migrate platforms, which can be costly and disruptive.

This decision point is one of the most difficult for SMBs, as it’s very easy to fall into a sunk cost fallacy — the tendency to follow through on an endeavor if we’ve already invested time, effort, or money into it, whether or not the current costs outweigh the benefits.

It’s easy to look backward at all the work done to get an IT solution to this point and exceedingly difficult to accept a large part of that investment as a sunk cost. The reality is that it doesn’t matter how much time has been invested in IT solutions. If security is not a core feature of the solution, then the long-term risk to an SMB’s business is greater than any sunk cost.

Acknowledge and act

Sunk costs burn because they feel like a failure — knowing what we know now, we should have made a different decision. New information is always presenting itself, and the security landscape is changing constantly around us. It’s impossible to foresee every shift, so our best defense is to remain agile and pivot when and as necessary. Acknowledge that there will be sunk costs on this journey, and allowing those to stand in the way of reasonable action is the real failure.

Moving forward

“There’s a brighter tomorrow that’s just down the road. Do not look back; you are not going that way” – Mary Engelbreit

Realizing your SMB has real cyber risk exposure to ransomware requires overcoming a series of logical fallacies and cognitive biases. Once you understand and accept that reality, it’s imperative not to buy into learned helplessness, because you need not be a victim. An SMB’s size and agility can be an advantage.

From here, re-evaluate your business partnerships and level of trust when it comes to cybersecurity. Be willing to make decisions that accept prior investments may just be sunk cost, but that the benefits of change to become more cyber resilient outweigh the risks of not changing in the long run.

Additional reading:

• 4 Fallacies That Keep SMBs Vulnerable to Ransomware, Pt. 1
• Cybercriminals’ Recruiting Effort Highlights Need for Proper User Access Controls
• How Ransomware Is Changing US Federal Policy
• Is the Internet of Things the Next Ransomware Target?

Post Syndicated from Ryan Weeks original https://blog.rapid7.com/2022/03/24/four-fallacies-that-keep-smbs-vulnerable-to-ransomware-pt-1/

Ransomware has focused on big-game hunting of large enterprises in the past years, and those events often make the headlines. The risk can be even more serious for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), who struggle to both understand the changing nature of the threats and lack the resources to become cyber resilient. Ransomware poses a greater threat to SMBs’ core ability to continue to operate, as recovery can be impossible or expensive beyond their means.

SMBs commonly seek assistance from managed services providers (MSPs) for their foundational IT needs to run their business — MSPs have been the virtual CIOs for SMBs for years. Increasingly, SMBs are also turning to their MSP partners to help them fight the threat of ransomware, implicitly asking them to also take on the role of a virtual CISO, too. These MSPs have working knowledge of ransomware and are uniquely situated to assist SMBs that are ready to go on a cyber resilience journey.

With this expert assistance available, one would think that we would be making more progress on ransomware. However, MSPs are still meeting resistance when working to implement a cyber resilience plan for many SMBs.

In our experience working with MSPs and hearing the challenges they face with SMBs, we have come to the conclusion that much of this resistance they meet is based on under-awareness, biases, or fallacies.

In this two-part blog series, we will present four common mistakes SMBs make when thinking about ransomware risk, allowing you to examine your own beliefs and draw new conclusions. We contend that until SMBs resistance to resilience improvement do the work to unwind critical flaws in thinking, ransomware will continue to be a growing and existential problem they face.

1. Relying on flawed thinking

“I’m concerned about the potential impacts of ransomware, but I do not have anything valuable that an attacker would want, so ransomware is not likely to happen to me.”

Formal fallacies

These arguments are the most common form of resistance toward implementing adequate cyber resilience for SMBs, and they create a rationalization for inaction as well as a false sense of safety. However, they are formal fallacies, relying on common beliefs that are partially informed by cognitive biases.

Formal fallacies can best be classified simply as deductively invalid arguments that typically commit an easily recognizable logical error when properly examined. Either the premises are untrue, or the argument is invalid due to a logical flaw.

Looking at this argument, the conclusion “ransomware will not happen to me” is the logical conclusion of the prior statement, “I have nothing of value to an attacker.” The flaw in this argument is that the attacker does not need the data they steal or hold ransom to be intrinsically valuable to them — they only need it to be valuable to the attack target.

Data that is intrinsically valuable is nice to have for an attacker, as they can monetize it outside of the attack by exfiltrating it and selling it (potentially multiple times), but the primary objective is to hold it ransom, because you need it to run your business. Facing this fact, we can see that the conclusion “ransomware will not happen to me” is logically invalid based on the premise “I have nothing of value to an attacker.”

Confirmation bias

The belief “ransomware will not happen to me” can also be a standalone argument. The challenge here is that the premise of the argument is unknown. This means we need data to support probability. With insufficient reporting data to capture accurate rates of ransomware on SMBs, this is problematic and can lead to confirmation bias. If I can’t find data on others like me as an SMB, then I may conclude that this confirms I’m not at risk.

Anchoring bias

I may be able to find data in aggregate that states that my SMB’s industries are not as commonly targeted. This piece of data can lead to an anchoring bias, which is the tendency to rely heavily on the first piece of information we are given. While ransomware might not be as common in your industry, that does not mean it does not exist. We need to research further rather than latching onto this data to anchor our belief.

Acknowledge and act

The best way to combat these formal fallacies and biases is for the SMB and their MSP to acknowledge these beliefs and act to challenge them through proper education. Below are some of the most effective exercises we have seen SMBs and MSPs use to better educate themselves on real versus perceived ransomware risk likelihood:

1. Threat profiling is an exercise that collects information, from vendor partners and open-source intelligence sources, to inform which threat actors are likely to target the business, using which tactics.
2. Data flow diagrams can help you to map out your unique operating environment and see how all your systems connect together to better inform how data moves and resides within your IT environment.
3. A risk assessment uses the threat profile information and overlays on the data flow diagram to determine where the business is most susceptible to attacker tactics.
4. Corrective action planning is the last exercise, where you prioritize the largest gaps in protection using a threat- and risk-informed approach.

2. Being resigned to victimhood

“Large companies and enterprises get hit with ransomware all the time. As an SMB, I don’t stand a chance. I don’t have the resources they do. This is hopeless; there’s nothing I can do about it.”

Victim mentality

This past year has seen a number of companies that were supposedly “too large and well-funded to be hacked” reporting ransomware breaches. It feels like there is a constant stream of information re-enforcing the mentality that, even with a multi-million dollar security program, an SMB will not be able to effectively defend against the adverse outcomes from ransomware. This barrage of information can make them feel a loss of control and that the world is against them.

Learned helplessness

These frequent negative outcomes for “prepared” organizations are building a sense of learned helplessness, or powerlessness, within the SMB space. If a well-funded and organized company can’t stop ransomware, why should we even try?

This mentality takes a binary view on a ransomware attack, viewing it as an all-or-nothing event. In reality, there are degrees of success of a ransomware attack. The goal of becoming immune to ransomware can spark feelings of learned helplessness, but if you reframe it as minimizing the damage a successful attack will have, this allows you to regain a sense of control in what otherwise may feel like an impossible effort.

Pessimism bias

This echo chamber of successful attacks (and thus presumed unsuccessful mitigations) is driving a pessimism bias. As empathetic beings, we feel the pain of these attacked organizations as though it were our own. We then tie this negative emotion to our expectation of an event (i.e. a ransomware attack), creating the expectation of a negative outcome for our own organization.

Acknowledge and act

Biases and beliefs shape our reality. If an SMB believes they are going to fall victim to ransomware and fails to protect against it, they actually make that exact adverse outcome more likely.

Despite the fear and uncertainty, the most important variable missing from this mental math is environment complexity. The more complex the environment, the more difficult it is to protect. SMBs have an advantage over their large-business counterparts, as the SMB IT environment is usually easier to control with the right in-house tech staff and/or MSP partners. That means SMBs are better situated than large companies to deter and recover from attacks — with the right strategic investments.

Check back with us next week, when we’ll tackle the third and fourth major fallacies that hold SMBs back from securing themselves against ransomware.

Additional reading:

• Graph Analysis of the Conti Ransomware Group Internal Chats
• How Ransomware Is Changing US Federal Policy
• Is the Internet of Things the Next Ransomware Target?
• Ransomware: Is Critical Infrastructure in the Clear?